Face of The Virgin Mary in grilled cheese??? (looks like the Mona Lisa to me!) Or random pattern??

Apophenia is the experience of seeing meaningful patterns or connections in random or meaningless data or sensations. In statistics, apophenia is called a Type I error, seeing patterns where none, in fact, exist.

For illustration let’s consider what is known as the Gambler’s Fallacy.  You are at a roulette wheel and black has come up the last 7 times in a row.  There is a propensity for gamblers to chose red because of the past 7 spins. However, the probability of either a red or black occurring is still 50%.  Each spin of the roulette wheel is independent and past spins have no bearing on future spins. Therefore, the gamblers have made patterns where none exist. (A correlation between past and future spins of the wheel.)

Apophenia is thought to be the cause of superstitions and phenomena such as EVP, numerology, paranormal experiences, and the pseudosciences.

In an article titled Of Jockstraps and Conspiracy Theories the author explains that the brain is a pattern-finding organ and when faced with uncertainty the brain will latch onto any similarity. The article considers the game of baseball. Daytona Beach Islander Jim Ohms puts another penny in the pouch of his jockstrap after each win. Clanging against the hard plastic genital cup, the pennies made a noise as he ran the bases toward the end of a winning season. Glenn Davis would chew the same gum every day during hitting streaks, saving it under his cap. Infielder Julio Gotay always played with a cheese sandwich in his back pocket  Wade Boggs ate chicken before every game during his career. Mike Hargrove, former Cleveland Indian first baseman, had so many time-consuming elements in his batting ritual that he was known as “the human rain delay. ”

It appears that when faced with uncertainty we inevitably start searching for patterns.  The more uncertainty, the more searching for patterns amid a sea of static.

At my own place of work there is no shortage of uncertainty. Child abuse and neglect incidents and reports defy statistical analysis.  There are a number of rituals and superstitions. One of the most prominent is that no one is to mention certain names of ex-clients for fear that we will get another report on them.   If we are low on reports one cannot comment on the fact that numbers are low, because this would cause numbers to spike dramatically. Despite my efforts to offer up explanations why these superstitions are irrational, my co-workers cling to these rituals with a religious conviction.  I secretly mention names of ex-clients and pray for a barrage of reports without effect.

However, people who are more questioning and skeptical by nature are better able to find subtle patterns that do in fact exist.  In several studies, those who described themselves as “skeptical” and scored high on self-esteem scales were able to pick up on actual patterns embedded in otherwise random data such as video and auditory static better than the control group or the group prone to believe in the paranormal.  It appears that a healthy dose of skepticism enables one to separate the wheat from the chaff.

Occam’s Razor ( William Ockham 1285-1349) posits that entities must not be multiplied unnecessarily. The razor refers to the act of shaving away unnecessary assumptions to get to the simplest explanation possible. The simplest explanation is the most likely to be true.  To quote Isaac Newton, “We are to admit no more causes of natural things than such as are both true and sufficient to explain their appearances.”

My point?  Question everything.  Accept nothing at face value. Embrace chaos.

Comfort is the brandy of the damned.

When the world’s greatest men and women have been eulogized one word has been conspicuously absent from the list of descriptors: comfortable.

Whether it is Jesus of Nazareth, Albert Einstein, Martin Luther King, Mother Teresa, Abraham Lincoln, Leonardo Di Vinci: they all blazed a trail where none existed.  Their lives did not revolve around having the biggest stack of toys or the sweetest Laz-e-Boy

On popular self-help and advice columns, far too often I hear suggestions about the ideal being gaining a place of comfort, a cocoon in which to escape. The pictures depicting a hammock on some tropical location.

My own thought is that the opposite is true. Humans live at their highest, most fulfilling level when we are leaning into our own discomfort. I am not suggesting anything rash, but on a daily basis taking an uncomfortable step toward greatness. In many cases it is something as simple as asking another person for something and expecting a positive response.

In 2002 I was pushing our twins in the jog stroller and was feeling dissatisfied in how out of shape I had become. ( My WHY was being a healthy, active father living to see my children become successful in whatever pursuits they choose. ) I decided to run two telephone poles distance all out.  Nothing monumental, but a step into discomfort that lead to much more satisfying discomfort.  While traveling 140.6 miles under one’s own power is not some people’s idea of satisfaction, it helps to illustrate the idea of small steps of discomfort can lead to great achievements.

After some recent set-backs, I had settled into a place of complacency (comfort).  “Oh, woe is me! The fates had aligned against me!” Bullshit! The set-backs were mostly of my own making.  I needed to take my whipping and move on.   With that said, I am back on the road to discomfort and loving it! I encourage my great readers to find discomfort.

Lean into discomfort.

Ed Stafford

I love this kind of news!! Amid all the bickering and moaning and downright depressing news, this is like a breath of fresh air.

Contending with man-eating fish, giant snakes, disease, and Indians who threatened his life, a British man has become the first person to walk the entire length of the world’s longest river, the Amazon.

After 859 days, Ed Stafford arrived at the river’s mouth on the Atlantic Ocean Monday in Maruda, Brazil. Stafford said he intended the more than 4,000-mile trek to be a journey of self endurance, but also hoped the walk would raise awareness about the ongoing destruction of the Amazon rain forest.

“I am simply doing it because no one has done it before.” Stafford started the route with a friend on April 2, 2008. Within three months the friend had quit and Stafford continued on his own, eventually meeting, Gadiel “Cho” Sanchez Rivera, a 31-year-old Peruvian forestry worker with whom he completed the trek.

There have at least been half a dozen previous journeys along the length of Amazon, beginning high in the mountains of Peru, through Columbia and into the thick jungles of Peru. But those expeditions all used boats.

Along the way Stafford confronted flesh-eating piranha, the giant anaconda, disease, food shortages and a run-in with Indians who threatened his life, but ultimately only confiscated his machete.

For more information check out Ed’s Blog at: www.walkingtheamazon.com

Now that Ironman sandbox has become so full, I think we need to up the ante.  Who’s with me?

Vibram Five Finger

I have heard about the resurgence of barefoot running for several years now.  Basically, the premise is that humans are born runners and evolutionarily we have run long distances in order to migrate to greener pastures. And we did this barefoot, or with a thin animal hide moccasin.

The modern running shoe didn’t emerge until 1970.  As the years have gone by, the layers of cushioning have thickened and various pronation devices have been added as well as additional arch support. Something was wrong with the design of the human foot. As running shoes became more prevalent, the number of injuries from running also increased. Running shoes change the biomechanics of running from a forefoot strike to a heel strike, putting more of the impact on the knees.

The problem with barefoot running is that it is an entirely different skill set.  It takes time to adjust to running barefoot…..literally months. For the last eight years I’ve had some event for which I have been training. I couldn’t just start from scratch on a new running technique. Since my knee surgery ( torn meniscus and a Baker’s cyst) at the end of April my running program has been pretty much non-existent.  I figured this would be a perfect time to give barefoot running a try.

After doing some homework, several sources recommended the purchase of the Vibram Five Finger as a good transitional tool into barefoot running.  The Vibram Five Finger gives a barefoot feel and has a minimal sole, but provides some protection from rocks, glass, nails, etc.  Since I had a trip to Dallas planned anyway, I decided to purchase them there and be able to try them on.  The sizing of the Five Finger is different from conventional shoes.  I bought mine from Luke’s Locker in Dallas and was reassured when I walked in and the clerks were wearing them.  The three clerks were runners and they all run in the Five Finger.  They recommended slowly transitioning into the Five Finger over a period of six weeks to two months.  They recommended using the Five Finger as a warm up before running starting off at around ten minutes daily the first week.  Build up very gradually and use your feet literally as a guide.  If your calves and feet are overly sore back off a bit and give them a few days recovery. Either way, there will be some transitional discomfort.

Barefoot running uses different muscles than running in running shoes.  It takes some time for the feet and calves to adjust to the change.  I had my first run on a rubberized track at the health club I use in Dallas.  The next morning the back of my calves were a bit sore.  I’ve had five runs in them so far and my knee seems to do better with this style of running.  I did notice that  I just naturally started running more on the balls of my feet and my supination disappeared.  I will publish updates as things progress.

Locally, the Vibram Five Finger can be purchased at Indiana Running Company.    Indiana Running Company has a store on the square in Bloomington.

Kafka on the Shore, by Haruki Murakami

One of the many advantages of the Sony Reader digital format is that as you download books the Sony Reader Store will learn about the kinds of books that you like and make recommendations.

Kafka on the Shore, by Haruki Murakami was one such recommendation.  It was my first introduction to this writer.  Kafka on the Shore is both bizarre and surreal. But, with that being said, is also a compelling story of the interconnectedness of lives.

The storyline alternates between two seemingly unrelated characters. The odd chapters are a first-person narrative of 15 year-old Kafka Tamura, who runs away from his home in Tokyo to escape his sculptor father and to search for his mother and sister.  The even chapters are told in the third person about Nakata, an elderly retarded man who has an uncanny ability to find missing cats.

Throughout the novel the two characters are on a collision course.  Author Haruki Murakami stated when asked about the meaning of the novel, ” the secret to understanding the novel lies in reading it multiple times: “Kafka on the Shore contains several riddles, but there aren’t any solutions provided. Instead, several of these riddles combine, and through their interaction the possibility of a solution takes shape. And the form this solution takes will be different for each reader. To put it another way, the riddles function as part of the solution. It’s hard to explain, but that’s the kind of novel I set out to write.”

I am glad to have been introduced to such an enigmatic writer. I plan on reading more of his works.

Strange Brew customers

I was at a travel baseball game Saturday morning in Greenwood and I was jonesing for a cup of coffee.  I used Bing to locate a nearby coffee shop and was really in for a delightful surprise.  The Strange Brew is nearly exactly like the coffee shop I would enjoy visiting in Seymour.

The place had just the right amount of Bohemian flair and a very comfortable, relaxed atmosphere.  I was in a hurry to get back to the ball game and would loved to have just hung out and relaxed for a while. The coffee house had a very eclectic group of customers which is always the hallmark of a good java establishment. Coffee has a way of bringing people together. Our own Constitution was conceived in a coffee house.

The prices were well below the national chain and the ability to customize one’s drinks was a real plus.  They had a few food items on the menu and the blueberry scone that I got was fresh from the oven and loaded with fresh blueberries. I had gone in for just a coffee, but I opted for a latte’ with an extra shot…just what I needed for three games of baseball spread out throughout the day.

I really wish someone would open one like this in Seymour. Between the highway 50 traffic, the Interstate, and local regulars this could be a viable business in the right location.  Strange Brew is located at  4800 West Smith Valley Road in Greenwood. 

Glenn Beck

Jon Stewart

Rush Limbaugh

Rachel Maddow

Nature abhors a vacuum. What has replaced the Reality TV phenomenon is the political ranting series.  Whether from the Conservative Right or the Liberal Left there is a flavor at both extremes.

Like him or hate him, Rush Limbaugh has made a fortune entertaining millions with his daily radio program and perfected the art of political entertainment.   Not to be outdone, others have hopped onto the bandwagon and upped the ante.

What is missing is the middle ground.  But, who would watch that?  Let’s say I create The Dan Thomas Show and decide that I will represent The Center. The Voice of Reason. I will shop from the Marketplace of Ideas and choose the best ideas without the shouting and ranting and partisanship of the other shows.  Zzzzzzzzzzz! Snooze. The show would not last.  There is no excitement or drama.  These shows have created a rivalry between the Right and the Left that is akin to the Red Sox and Yankees.  Line up against the other team, don’t give an inch! Naming -calling and giving The Finger are perfectly acceptable. Civility be damned!

What makes for great entertainment doesn’t work for governing a diverse nation evolving from an industrial base to a technological and information age nation in the grip of the worse economic time since the 1930’s. Rigid ideology doesn’t translate into bipartisanship to do what is best for this nation.  What has become all too apparent is that people are taking the ideas put forth by these entertainers and translating them into political platforms.

Consider Libertarianism.  As a college student I thought this was a viable political philosophy.  Laissez Faire. People do as they please unimpeded by messy little rules.  If you spend more than 15 minutes working in social services, you very quickly realize that there are scumbags out there!  Scumbags take advantage of situations and quickly figure out ways to extort others. Ayn Rand can rant about Social Darwinism and the need to let the weaker of the species die off to make way for the stronger. However, as a nation founded with the idea that ” all men are created equal” and the Ten Commandments as a measuring stick of morality, we are only as strong as the way we treat the less-fortunate.  An idea that I learned in 1st Grade Sunday School that I refuse to compromise.

What makes  for great entertainment needs to remain as entertainment. What makes for great governing is respect for the rule of law, civility, open-minded discourse between other elected officials of all stripes, willingness to roll up our sleeves and work side-by-side.  This is not about US vs. Them, it is about all of US as a whole.

In team sports why not play the BEST athletes? The players with the most athletic prowess.  The best players would obviously make the best team.  Instead (at least locally) there seems to be a notion of playing the players based on the parents’ participation in the league or sport, the relative popularity or wealth of the parents, parents’ position on  the school board or committees, parents’ ability to suck up to those making the decisions.

None of these have any relevance to the child’s athletic prowess.  In some cases it is painful to watch a child with less-than-average talents put into a high-profile position only to flounder helplessly and have teammates frustrated with their performance. And this begs the question: are parents actually hindering their child’s progress by artificially inflating their talent?  I think so.  Children model the behavior of other children more than they take advice from adults.  If the more-talented athletes get more play, the less talented have a chance to model behavior that they witness.  The less talented see what needs to be improved to move up and succeed. A less-talented first baseman is not going to be able to model a more-talented player if the less-talented is played at first base.

Children are more insightful than we give them credit. After a few games it becomes very obvious why a particular player was chosen for a position. Does talent-inflation do much for a child’s self-esteem when they know they were chosen for their parent’s role and not their own athletic abilities?  No. Again, I think parents do their children and the team a disservice .

And what about the more-talented players who don’t see as much play?  In some cases they lose interest in team sports and become involved in individual sports.  Take cross-county, track and field, swimming: the better athlete wins. Everyone plays.  There is no bench.  Parents have no role in who plays what position.

But in the end no one is served well by a system of  choosing players based on parents. Perhaps this explains Seymour High School’s lack of success in basketball and football.

Planet India by Mira Kamdar

With a population of 1.5 billion people India is the world’s largest democracy.   As such, as India goes so goes the world.  After studying Hindi for some time, I thought it would be interesting to study the demographics and culture of India.

India is the world’s fourth-largest economy.•

By 2034, India will be the most populous country on Earth, with 1.6 billion people.

•India’s middle class is already larger than the entire population of the United States.

•One out of three of the world’s malnourished children live in India.

•India is home to the biggest youth population on earth:

600 million people are under the age of 25.

•109,000,000 cell phones will be sold in India in 2010.

•India just edged past the United States to become the second-most-preferred destination for foreign direct investment after China.

•In 1991, Indians purchased 150,000 automobiles; in 2007, they are expected to purchase 10 million.

•By 2008, India’s total pool of qualified graduates will be more than twice as large as China’s.

•By 2015, an estimated 3.5 million white-collar U.S. jobs will be offshored.

•India is the largest arms importer in the developing world.

•American corporations expect to earn $20 to $40 billion from the civilian nuclear agreement with India.

•In 2007, there are 2.2 million Indian Americans, a number expected to double every decade.

•Twenty-nine percent of India’s population speaks English — that’s 350 million people.

The numbers clearly reflect that India needs to succeed as a democracy and be a close ally of the United States.  As a developing nation India can learn from some of America’s mistakes. While India is a mix of various religions ( Hindu, Muslim, Sikh, Jain, Buddhist, Christian) the dominant culture is Hindu.  Hindu culture places a high value on family and non-violence. Much of American corporate culture has to be re-interpreted for the Indian market.

Fascinating stuff and despite all the numbers it is a quick read.